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Aust-Politics
Australian Political Debate
Predictions 
23rd-Nov-2007 07:11 am
Me
OK, the election is tomorrow. How do you predict the results?

I say the Coalition will have massive losses, either close to or actually less than 50% overall votes, but it will manage to stay in government with a very tiny majority of seats, three or less.

This will be trumpeted as a victory despite being probably the biggest swing against a government in Australian history.

Greens will have a small increase in seats, as will Family First. Democrats will be further eroded away.

I can't decide if Mr Howard will lose in Bennelong. Probably not, but I really hope so just for the humour factor.

Anyone else feeling a bit Nostradamusy?
Comments 
23rd-Nov-2007 12:02 am (UTC)
I have the same prediction as you. but nobody i know has agreed with me so far.
23rd-Nov-2007 12:27 am (UTC)
I try not to think about what may/will actually happen; it makes me far too depressed. I like to live in my happy fantasy world where the Greens run the country... *sigh*
23rd-Nov-2007 01:27 am (UTC)
There will be either a small Liberal win or a total landslide ALP win. Nothing in-between.

Family First will win nothing. This time they have few/no preferences coming their way, and their primary vote is limited by demographics. (100% of Australians know they are christian extremists and the people who vote for them are the 2% who are themselves sympathetic to christian extremists)

Xenophon will win a senate seat in SA (despite the $50,000 scandal) and his preference surplus will elect a Greens senator there too. The Greens will also get at least four more states with one senator.

Democrats will win nothing and will exit the senate in disgrace next June.

Tony Jones will again be unable to pronounce Antony, and will keep referring to a mythical "Anthony Green" like he keeps doing on lateline.

John Howard will have at least one visible tear running from an eye when making his concession speech.
23rd-Nov-2007 06:58 am (UTC)
I concur. ALP will end up with 72 seats, or 97. I think Bennelong will go to the ALP. I could almost live with a Liberal government if Howard loses, actually there is a sick side of me that hopes for this result. If that happens, Howard will leave in disgrace, and it will be the main memory of his time in power. The leadership battle that will come out of it (Costello vs. Turnbull vs. Downer vs. Abbott vs. possibly Bishop) will absolutely destroy the Liberals and make them exceptionally ineffective. I think the Greens will win the senate spot in the ACT, meaning they won't be able to do anything. I think there possibly is an "economic tsunami" on the horizon, which Costello (most likely) or Turnbull (possible), will be unable to deal with. If they do manage to push through their tax cuts (probably in an altered ALP style), then inflation will be the name of the game. The economy will go to shit, and we'll have a DD within 18 months (probably on IR laws to save us from the tsunami).

The result of this will be that the Libs will be shown up to be the frauds they really are; that their economic credentials were nothing more than riding on the excavators back. The ALP will win the DD in an absolute landslide, and the Greens will become a real political force. The climate change issue is only going to get worse; if Costello is leader, he won't do anything, but if Turnbull is he will, to go to the DD with those credentials. Expect to see the Libs decimated to less than 30 seats, and the Nats to bail on the coalition.

The more I think of it, that would be the best scenario long term for the country. The Nats will grow some balls and start representing their constituents (the Nats are an important voice for the country that is far too often silenced by the Libs). The Libs will become a far right party and take the place of Family First and One Racist, oops, One Nation (or Pauline Hanson, or whatever the fuck is going on with that bit of infighting). The Greens will become a strong voice for the left, especially on issues such as labor relations, social policy and climate change, and the ALP will take up a place as a populist centrist party. The next decade of two of Australian politics will be the ALP running the country, but having to appease either the right (libs) or left (greens) to get anything past the senate. For me, this is highly preferential to a strong left vs strong right situation. One strong party, with small parties making the difference in the senate will encourage more parties, and in fifteen years time we'll find ourselves having to choose between five potential leaders, rather than two. And that, ultimately, is what we should all be hoping for, for that my friends, is democracy.
23rd-Nov-2007 06:59 am (UTC)
I second all of this! Well, I don't really know anything about Xenophon, I've mostly been watching the campaign in NSW, but... XD
23rd-Nov-2007 06:58 am (UTC)
I think I'm more optimistic than you XD

Labor win, with an overall swing of somewhere between five and six per cent (according to the ABC's election calculator, 5% delivers it ALP 79 / Coalition 69 / Ind 2, and 6% gives 83 / 65 / 2). Either way, it's an easy victory.

Bennelong, Wentworth, Eden Monaro and those two seats in Tassie are amongst those that the ALP gain. Grayndler and Sydney benefit heavily from the Green vote, with the Greens getting more primary votes than the Liberals. A surprise result - North Sydney, in an unprecedented backlash against Hockey and WorkChoices, either goes to the ALP outright or becomes a new marginal.

In the Senate, the Greens are the winners and the Dems are the losers. The Democrats lose all four remaining seats, being wiped from Federal existance. The Greens gain at least three more seats, maybe four - Nettle and Brown win their seats back, too. It's likely, then, that the balance of power is held by the Greens.
23rd-Nov-2007 10:23 am (UTC)
Labor with 92 seats, although the pessimist in me says Howard will get back in with a 1 seat majority.
23rd-Nov-2007 02:56 pm (UTC)
I'm just hoping someone else will get in.
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